Documentation

How Forecasting Works

The exact calculation behind every recommendation — no black box.

Sales velocity (ADU)

Foreshelf calculates average daily usage (ADU) per SKU from your order history. Before averaging, outliers are filtered using the IQR method — a one-off promotion does not distort your normal reorder signal.

Reorder decision

For each SKU, Foreshelf compares remaining stock, supplier lead time, and velocity to classify the situation into four categories:

Products without sales history

A newly received product with no sales is never classified as “dead stock” — there is simply not enough data to judge. Foreshelf waits for a minimum history (30 orders, 60 days) before proposing an automated action (see How Marcus Decides).

Data improves over time

As your sales history grows, the velocity estimate converges on your true average — a basic statistical property (the law of large numbers), not an empty marketing promise.